Media
Coverage of Elections and Voting Behaviour
An analysis
of 2014 Lok Sabha Elections in Uttar Pradesh
Abstract
These elections saw for the first time the increasing role
of the media in reaching out to the voters and political parties reaching out
to voters through the media. Some say there was an ‘Ámericanization of Índian
election’ with the way political leadership was being projected. With a view to
understanding the role of media in the voting behaviour of the electorate, this
study understands the role media plays in forming public opinion and the effect
media coverage can have on shaping the electoral mandate. Secondly, this
research studies to what extent voters are exposed to different media (radio,
television, internet and social media). Thirdly, the role of various factors
that affect voter turnout have been studied. Fourthly, the role of women and men
voters, literate and illiterate voters is understood. Fifthly, various factors
that affected voting (horse-race coverage, candidate coverage, issue coverage,
party affiliations) by the electorate is studied. Sixthly, the kind of election
coverage (agenda-setting, priming, framing, game frame) that existed in
parliamentary elections 2014 is analysed. Seventhly, the study analyses how
role of Election Commission may be improved and how conduct of elections may be
improved in future. The study has proposed recommendations that election
coverage in India should be revised by media organisations. This research moves
beyond the role of ‘opinion leaders’ in a polity stressing on the significant
role of technology and media in the years to come.
Keywords: Lok Sabha election, parliamentary election,
Indian election, media effect, voting behaviour, media influence, public
opinion
Introduction Until 1967 the state and the Lok Sabha
elections were conducted simultaneously. Today it is an exercise that involves
a huge amount of energy, resources and the entire machinery of the nation to
conduct them in the best possible manner. Media coverage of elections is
immense where every effort is made by media organizations to follow highest
standards of journalism in the process. Media coverage of elections effects and
influences people and voters in a large way. At one time Election Commission
felt that opinion polls may sway public opinion in favour of or against a
party. This makes the democracy a weak one with the press getting the ultimate
power to decide and discuss elections. Some say that freedom of press is
curtailed with the ban on opinion polls. However, the nature in which elections
and electoral issues are discussed undermines the role of a vibrant democracy.
The press is not above public opinion or above electorate. In the bid to show
major electoral issues, the real issues get sidelined or neglected and the ones
that come on centrestage are the ones considered necessary by political parties
or considered important by a handful of gatekeepers. This study is inspired by
claims that opinion polls must be banned altogether, even in between phases of
voting. Media coverage of elections takes place depending upon the limited
training of journalists along with politician-journalist liaison. The real
decision-makers are the people but does that genuine public opinion get
reflected in the electoral outcome or does it tend to get swayed by unequal,
biased media coverage of elections. This forms the basic premise of the study.
The research tries to analyse the various aspects of media coverage of election
of 2014 in a rural constituency of Uttar Pradesh. There are a few operational
definitions within this research: Election: An election is a formal
decision-making process by which a population chooses an individual to hold
public office. Opinion Poll: An opinion poll, sometimes simply referred to as a
poll, is a survey of public opinion from a particular sample. Exit Poll: An
election exit poll is a poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited
the polling stations. Media: Communication channels through which news,
entertainment, education, data, or promotional messages are disseminated. Media
includes every broadcasting and narrowcasting medium such as newspapers, magazines,
TV, radio, billboards, direct mail, 4 telephone, fax, and internet. Media is
the plural of medium and can take a plural or singular verb, depending on the
sense intended. Bias: An inclination or preference that influences judgment
from being balanced or evenhanded.
Objectives
of study
Specific objectives of the study are to understand what is
the extent of media coverage and does media exposure affect voter turnout. Main
objective is to find out the following details:
· The
effect of election coverage on voting behaviour of electorate
·
Influence of election news coverage on voting behaviour Some research questions
to be answered are:
· RQ1:
To what extent voters are exposed to different media (radio, television,
internet and social media)?
· RQ2:
Did media exposure affect voter turnout?
· RQ3:
Which other factors affected voter turnout?
· RQ4: How many women as
compared to men voters were influenced by media?
· RQ5: How many illiterate
as compared to educated and literate men and women were influenced by media?
· RQ6:
Which type of coverage in the media (horse race, candidate, and issue) prompted
them to vote?
· RQ7:
Which aspect of media coverage (agenda-setting, priming, framing, game frame)
existed in this election coverage in 2014?
· RQ8:
What was the role of the Election Commission?
· RQ9:
How can the conduct and coverage of election be improved in future?
Statement
of problem
The primary research question of the current study is to
understand whether or not the election coverage influences voting behaviour in
India. Most studies in this area either look at media and elections from a
personal view point of the media or discuss the same from a negative
perspective. It is argued that the media has both positive and negative
attributes which help contribute to electoral voting pattern and it is
important to look at both these aspects. 5 Media are free to conduct opinion
polls during elections. The mass media in India and its growth reflects the
diversity and plurality of the country during the period of elections. However,
there have been some arguments that the media by adopting opinion polls can
sometimes distort fair dissemination of information by looking into motives of
profit and private support specific parties. It is argued that a number of civil
society organisations around the country were worried that given the 2004
Election Commission role on using media for political promotion there has been
extensive misuse of the print and electronic media by various political parties
and candidates around the world. An examination of the above study factors
indicate that election related studies have concentrated on positives of
elections with almost negligible importance given to the negatives of the same.
There is evidence to suggest the need to distinguish between news, views and
political campaigning.
Limitations
of study
The study is conducted in a single Lok Sabha constituency
which is difficult to represent the entire state of Uttar Pradesh. Uttar
Pradesh is a multi-ethnic, multi-lingual and multi-cultural state. So a study
in one part of the state cannot be replicated in another part. This research
will use the results after the general election of 2014. Similarly, voting
during General elections 2014 wherein the primary data is to be collected from the
electorate by using a questionnaire to find out how certain different voters
and members from the electorate viewed these elections. Sample size is 500
respondents. The study questionnaire and focus groups will be conducted in
specific regions of the constituency including Kanpur rural area.
Research
Design
Hypotheses
After much study of the literature, the hypothesis for this
study -the null and alternate hypotheses are:
Ho= Media coverage of election does not influence voting
behavior
Ha=Media coverage of election influences voting behavior
In this case the independent variable is ‘media coverage of
election’ and the dependent variable is ‘voting behaviour’. The researcher
seeks to find answers to the research questions with the help of a definite
research methodology and specific tools and techniques.
Research methodology
For the purpose of the study, a mixed research methodology
is undertaken. Survey method is adopted for a quantitative study and focus
group discussions are taken up for a qualitative study. Survey methodology
studies the sampling of individual units from a population and the associated
survey data collection techniques, such as questionnaire construction and
methods for improving the number and accuracy of responses to surveys. This method
is best suited for this study as there was a need to collect details about the
different sections of the population and analyze their responses to certain
questions related to media habits and voter behavior. Interview schedules were
administered as well. Focus group is a form of qualitative research in which a
group of people are asked about their perceptions, opinions, beliefs, and
attitudes towards a product, service, concept, advertisement, idea, or
packaging. Questions are asked in an interactive group setting where
participants are free to talk with other group members. Such a triangulation
method facilitates research and dissolves any margin of error in getting the
results. Triangulation is a method where two or more methods are used to check
the results. Primary data collection through focus group discussions Twelve
focus groups were conducted with the rural representatives of each of these
groups-
· Grassroots workers of
Uttar Pradesh Congress Committee
· Grassroots workers of
Samajwadi Party
·
Grassroots workers of Communist Party of India (Marxist)(CPI-M)
·
Grassroots workers of Aam Admi Party
·
Members of Islamic Peace Foundation
·
Members of Sri Guru Singh Sabha
·
Members of Sangha Vichar Parishad
·
Members of ‘Parivartan’, a Non-Governmental Organisation (N.G.O.)
·
Members of Hunter Sena and Mahila Social Action Committee
·
Group of illiterate adult voters
·
Group of educated youth
·
Group of young professional educated women
Primary data collection through survey questionnaires 7
Within various Vidhan Sabha constituencies, details of villages, wards and
Qanoongo circles visited by the researcher for the purpose of data collection
are as follows. The following Cidhan Sabha constituencies within one Lok Sabha
constituency – Akbarpur was taken for study:
1.
Akbarpur-Rania 2. Bithoor 3. Ghatampur 4.
Kalyanpur 5. Maharajpur
Sample
Population and sample
The survey is conducted in Akbarpur Lok Sabha constituency where the total
number of electors are 17, 66, 778. In each of the five Vidhan Sabha constituencies
respondents are picked based on simple random sampling. It is an unbiased
representation of a group. This involves taking a sample of 500 respondents
from a population of size of 17, 66, 778 electors. The reason for choosing
simple random sample is the simplicity of procedure in conducting the survey.
The survey questionnaire has been conducted to avoid the pitfalls in other
forms of sampling in a region where it is usually difficult to reach by a good
transport. The questionnaires were distributed to 100 people from each sub-group
of the main constituency.
Findings,
analysis and discussion
Media exposure of voters
Few responses suggest that despite good media exposure media
did not influence their voting behaviour. Results show that media is used by
the electorate to increase their knowledge and awareness but their voting
behaviour doesn’t get influenced. Candidate knowledge is important to be able
to vote. Sometimes media misleads so it negatively influences the voter who
sometimes is more like the consumer. Learning effect is at play- media helps
make ‘an informed choice’. General election 2014 saw the widespread use of
mediatised strategies by the parties and that helped changed the voters’ minds.
The knowledge about voters and parties increases. It creates an awareness.
Campaign strategies work more powerfully than mainstream media coverage.
Election and voting is a weapon of an enlightened social citizen. 8 Media
campaign strategies Some respondents were influenced by neighbours, family and
friends. Media coverage is good and bad. People power is paramount and media
should not be used to promote and propagate personal agendas as it is done by
some today. If media is not used properly people reject the candidate. Media
facilitates the campaigning being done by various parties. It is a platform to
present the knowledge to the public. There are unwarranted and extended
discussion of leadership, issues and debates which need not be covered. Issues
need more focus. Some even had a cynical view towards elections. Due to
excessive use of social media by parties some people did not vote. Social media
is good for the party that uses it but a lot of people make friends blindly
which is a bad use of the media. Social media use is susceptible to web crimes.
Women versus men voters
Yes there were more women in these elections. But there is a
bias among a few men towards women candidates. Illiterate voters feel that
women are competent but people think twice before voting for her wondering
whether women will be able to manage home and work together after getting the
responsibility of an MP. This answers another research question: RQ4: How many
women as compared to men voters and candidates were influenced by media? Women
are steering ahead in every field. It is little wonder that they perform as
women are the frontrunners in any political rally or march. Women are equally
hard-working and nothing can stop them as even in lathicharges they are way
ahead than men. They are fearless and dynamic. Feudal mindset exists towards
women who were not allowed to vote in her family. However women MPs like Smriti
Irani are changing the rules and have created a precedent that women can
equally well contest elections and do a good job in politics. She used her
‘bahu image’ to contest the elections. Media can play an important role in more
participation from women. People wanted to be a part of the social change
that’s going on. Voting is after all more of a social exercise than a political
one.
Illiterate versus literate voters
Illiterate voters had more mature responses than literate
ones. This answers another research question:
RQ5: How many illiterate as compared to educated and
literate men and women were influenced by media? 9 Accountability of the
candidate towards them made them vote. Media coverage of election influenced
their voter turnout. More media coverage of election meant more voting. Media
exposure definitely had a direct relationship with voter turnout. Greater media
coverage, greater was the voter turnout among them.
Media campaign strategies
taken up by various parties helped and personalization helps
more than just campaigning with the help of mainstream media. Greater
campaigning by Modi meant more competition for other parties. This leads to
horse race coverage.
Type of coverage in the media
Respondents point to the fact that the election coverage was
more of a horse-race coverage where the coverage was more on polls , leadership
and candidate image instead of other more serious concerns. They say that often
journalists’ point of view is subjective and the electorate is forced to think
about the type of coverage that suits the journalists and the journalists want
the electorate to believe their subjective viewpoint on elections. There is not
enough support provided to the voters to make their own objective viewpoint
because those issues are not brought up and the journalists’ version of
‘reality of elections’ is forced upon the viewer and the electorate. Some
voters tend to become cynics and due to hearing about the elections which is
not a true picture are dissuaded from voting
Framing of election news in media
The framing of election news in Indian media has focussed
more on agenda-setting and gameframes. Some respondents said that elections
were contested on television and in the radio as though it were a competition,
contest and game. This left several voters disillusioned and did not want to
cast a vote as they felt that elections were not a serious issue but a ‘fun’
exercise. It diverted the voters towards concentrating on their daily chores
rather than being a part of this political and social exercise. In the election
coverage of 2014, media played up certain issues and items more than others and
seemed to decide on an agenda for the public and for the politicians.
Impact of elections on voters
This election was
similar to what Temin and Smith found in their study of the 2000 Ghanaian
elections- that the media played a pivotal role in the election coverage, but
the impact of the media at the grassroots level is minimal. Media outlets are
consumed very differently across different parts of the constituency. The media
have a significant effect on a particular class of Indian- the urban elites the
class that matters. In this case, however, the impact of such coverage has
reached the urban voters and rural voters are still left out of this sort of
media 10 blitzkrieg. There is no single lingua franca, there is low literacy
rate, communications network are not too widespread and there are legal
protections on free speech and expression.
Suggestions for improvement of the conduct of
elections
Presidential debate culture of the US must be followed here
unlike only mindless discussions on television. Debates on each and every topic
should be done instead of personalized attacks on candidates as happen these
days. It is thus important to note that the findings have tilted towards media
coverage not influencing voter behaviour at large due to little media
penetration and little media exposure of the electorate.
Quantitative data analysis
Quantitative data findings answer some and most of our
research questions and indicate that media coverage of elections does not
influence voter behaviour.
Demographic profile
The demographic profile of candidates is such that majority
of the respondents are from the age group of 18 to 29 years followed by those
in the age bracket 30 to 49 years and least respondents who were fifty years or
above. Moreover most of the candidates were males, with hundred respondents
each from AkbarpurRaniya, Bithoor, Ghatampur, Kalyanpur and Maharajpur Vidhan
Sabha constituencies. In different constituencies different occupations
remained predominant among respondentsfarmers were a majority in
Akbarpur-Raniya, unemployed and housewives remained a majority in Bithoor, in
Ghatampur students were a majority while in Kalyanpur those in private
businesses remained in a majority and in Maharajpur again unemployed and
housewives remained a majority. Most of the residents were from rural or
village areas and lesser from the cities. As far as the marital status of
respondents is concerned there were more single men and women from
Akbarpur-Raniya and Kalyanpur while from Bithoor, Ghatampur and Maharajpur
there were more married respondents. In all the constituencies most respondents
were educated upto college and above. Hence most of them were graduates.
Majority of the respondents spoke in Hindi while the rest spoke other local
dialects. Majority of the respondents belonged to the upper caste especially
Brahmins followed by Other 11 Backward Classes. The rest of the respondents
were Muslims, Koeris, Kurmis, Yadavs, Jats, Scheduled Castes and Jatavs. As far
as the use of social media is concerned, majority of the respondents used
social media for one to three hours daily where Facebook was the main social
networking site used. Voters, this explains, are exposed to the media to a
large extent. This answers the first research question in detail spelling out
how much of media is used by various respondents.
General awareness about Lok Sabha election 2014
Through the survey questionnaire it is learnt that majority
of the people had little information about election through the media. Most of
the knowledge about elections was received from television followed by internet
and then friends, family, relatives and village elders and then the radio.
Majority of the respondents had voted. Most of the respondents were motivated
to vote by the urge to serve the country and build its future. The various
factors that motivated one to vote are that it is one’s right, everybody else
was voting, for peace and security, so that their candidate wins and comes to
power, for sops and gifts from political parties after they win, the candidate
was from their community, strengthening democracy, for the development of the
area, and in order to end the problems of water, electricity and road
construction.
Assessment of the Lok Sabha election
The survey found out about how these Lok Sabha elections
were gauged by the electorate through the coverage in the media. Questions were
asked regarding the conduct of elections and whether they were legal, free and
fair election and completely lawful. Responses were varied and interesting –
majority of the respondents said that elections were transparent on being asked
about transparency of elections in various booths. There were several reasons
as to why people who voted or even those who did not vote thought elections
were transparent- they said there was no fraud, then there were not more than
one voter i-card holders, all voters were genuine, the media of the country was
present at those booths, nobody had a complaint, everybody took part freely in
these elections, elections were conducted lawfully, security was very strong
and one person even said that he thought elections were transparent because his
candidate won so they were fair.
Role of the Election Commission
One of the research questions was : 12 RQ8: What was the
role of the Election Commission? The survey conducted also gauged people’s
responses to a pertinent question related to the role of the Election
Commission during the election coverage. Respondents had differing views and
opinions. Majority of the respondents said that they thought the role of the
Election Commission was satisfactory while some respondents said the role was
very satisfactory and a few said the role was unsatisfactory. Those who thought
the role of the Election Commission during elections was very satisfactory
thought it was due to security being good, there was no fraud and fake votes
were eliminated, there was no problem during voting, all polling booths were
there at the venue, all the voters got an opportunity to vote, all the
complaints were being heard and solutions were found and other reasons. There
were reasons as to why the respondents felt the role of the Election Commission
was only satisfactory and those reasons were- the security was good enough,
there was less fraud and fake votes were eliminated, there was no problem
during the elections, all polling booths were present, all voters got a chance
to vote, all complaints were being heard and solutions were taken out, certain
votes were wasted, people’s electricity problems did not end and other reasons.
Media effects of Lok Sabha election 2014
Majority of the respondents said they voted for the
candidate who is currently in power. There are several reasons and factors that
motivated one to vote and those factors were- television coverage and talks
with politicians on television, after reading about it in the newspapers, hearing
about elections on the radio, reading about elections in the social media and
on Facebook, listening to the talks on elections, experiencing the election
campaigning, reading the candidate coverage, some people were motivated to vote
due to billboards and pamphlets and election leaflets, others by listening to
neighbours and opinion leaders around, few others by talking to relatives, and
others in their colony. Respondents were asked about how they found the
political parties were represented- was representation of parties, very
satisfactory, satisfactory or unsatisfactory and a majority of them said that
the representation was satisfactory, few found it very satisfactory and others
unsatisfactory. There were several reasons why they thought the representation
was very satisfactory- all parties got fair representation and media gave free
and fair and impartial coverage of the elections. Some who found the role
satisfactory said – media was covered like a sport, was free and fair in its
coverage, few parties and candidates got preference over others 13 and media
was not very serious about the coverage of election. Few respondents found the
representation of parties rather unsatisfactory and the main reasons for that
were- media covered the elections non-seriously, media deliberately discussed
certain issues over others for TRPs, media gave preferential coverage to few
candidates or parties over others. In other words, there was horse-race
coverage in the media and candidates and parties were not treated at par and
equally by journalists. Respondents were asked the question as to what should
be the role of the media ideally during election coverage. The answers were
varied- media should be more unbiased and all parties should get due coverage,
reporters should be allowed inside the polling booths for better and more
impartial coverage, reporters should be present there to prevent fraud and
bribery, etc., opinion polls should be banned, politicians should not all be
allowed to feature very frequently in the media, political advertisements
should be stopped in the media, there should be more coverage given to issues
and manifestos, the methods of campaigning during elections should be made more
transparent and visible in the media, presiding officers, etc. Should not be
allowed to be in touch with the media in case they misuse it, all campaigning
should be stopped one week before campaigning across the country as elections
are held in phases, during voting there must be a check on the campaigning that
went on in the pre-voting phase. After much analysis, it was found that media
does not always give a positive coverage of elections in the media.
Contemporary research emphasizes various cognitive and affective processes
through which news media indirectly influence citizens’ political participation
and preferences. These processes are central in four types of media effects
that have recently received considerable attention in the election context:
agenda-setting, priming, framing, knowledge gain. Della Vigna & Kaplan talked
about the Fox News effect which again applies to Indian elections where media
bias tends to alter voting behaviour among voters. Moreover voting behaviour
theories are not completely scientific nor do they have definite stages of
progression. There are failed attempts to target problems of political
behaviour implicit in the voting process, there is little research planning
leading to integrated theory construction, most political scientists do not
cooperate with other researchers in fields of social science in order to
research into political behaviour, the research is often characterized by poor
techniques or the rule of thumb improperly applied and that voting behaviour
researchers have sometimes a peculiar conception of the meaning of
verification. However here it served as a good standard to understand the
voters’ opinions and leanings based on the survey. 14 It is also noticed that
spiral of silence theory is at play here. The spiral of silence theory
stipulates that individuals have a fear of isolation, which results from the
idea that a social group or the society in general might isolate, neglect or
exclude members due to the members’ opinions. This fear of isolation
consequently leads to remaining silent instead of voicing opinions. Media is an
important factor that relates to both the dominant idea and people’s perception
of the dominant idea. The assessment of one’s social environment may not always
correlate with reality. At a time when Narendra Modi’s election campaigns were
being organized across the country in various states by the Bharatiya Janata
Party there seemed to be a wave completely in his favour with very few opinions
and voices to the contrary.
Conclusion
Media does not have a large impact on voter behavior or
turnout at least in the rural areas of Kanpur. One of the reasons for this
study was to find out the media habits of people which directed us towards the
extent of media exposure in India. Findings have indicated that people are
exposed to radio, television and the internet but in a limited way. While
substantial number of people agreed to the use of radio, only few watched
television and a handful few were interested in reading the newspapers. As
people watched television during elections, some of them did not watch news at
all, rather continued to watch soaps and serials. This reduced their media
exposure to the election news being telecast on television. In rural areas such
media exposure was less. People listened to the radio more than any other media
use. There was an interesting finding in this research that more than the
mainstream media coverage which is quite expensive for a political party, media
campaigns had a stronger influence on the voting behaviour. Media coverage as
we have learnt refers to the mainstream media coverage of elections- ways used
by parties to promote their agendas and reach out to the public. During the
elections parties and candidates use various means to reach out to the voters
and in that sense ‘note-forvote’ has been highly criticised. Media logic refers
to the way of seeing and interpreting social affairs, in this case the
elections. Along with it, ‘political economy’ of media puts enough pressure on
the media organizations that they often align their agendas with those of the
parties in election fray. Future research on a similar topic could look into
other aspects of elections- campaigns, candidate coverage, usage of social
media by various political leaders. 15 This study shows how electoral practices
can be improved through the study on the scope for improved role of the
Election Commission. The study has implications for NGOs working for electoral
reforms and those who work towards better democratic practices. The study also
is useful for media organizations to understand how media coverage can be
improved. The study works on political parties on how can campaigning and their
practices be made effective for electorate. It is useful for psephologists,
political activists and academicians who can read and learn from this and form
their opinions about how elections can be studied in a rural area with a
diverse population and with limited media reach and exposure.
tag on profile.
By
Amit Kumar Yadav {{descmodel.currdesc.readstats }}
Media Coverage of Elections and Voting Behaviour
An analysis of 2014 Lok Sabha Elections in Uttar Pradesh
Abstract
These elections saw for the first time the increasing role of the media in reaching out to the voters and political parties reaching out to voters through the media. Some say there was an ‘Ámericanization of Índian election’ with the way political leadership was being projected. With a view to understanding the role of media in the voting behaviour of the electorate, this study understands the role media plays in forming public opinion and the effect media coverage can have on shaping the electoral mandate. Secondly, this research studies to what extent voters are exposed to different media (radio, television, internet and social media). Thirdly, the role of various factors that affect voter turnout have been studied. Fourthly, the role of women and men voters, literate and illiterate voters is understood. Fifthly, various factors that affected voting (horse-race coverage, candidate coverage, issue coverage, party affiliations) by the electorate is studied. Sixthly, the kind of election coverage (agenda-setting, priming, framing, game frame) that existed in parliamentary elections 2014 is analysed. Seventhly, the study analyses how role of Election Commission may be improved and how conduct of elections may be improved in future. The study has proposed recommendations that election coverage in India should be revised by media organisations. This research moves beyond the role of ‘opinion leaders’ in a polity stressing on the significant role of technology and media in the years to come.
Keywords: Lok Sabha election, parliamentary election, Indian election, media effect, voting behaviour, media influence, public opinion
Introduction Until 1967 the state and the Lok Sabha elections were conducted simultaneously. Today it is an exercise that involves a huge amount of energy, resources and the entire machinery of the nation to conduct them in the best possible manner. Media coverage of elections is immense where every effort is made by media organizations to follow highest standards of journalism in the process. Media coverage of elections effects and influences people and voters in a large way. At one time Election Commission felt that opinion polls may sway public opinion in favour of or against a party. This makes the democracy a weak one with the press getting the ultimate power to decide and discuss elections. Some say that freedom of press is curtailed with the ban on opinion polls. However, the nature in which elections and electoral issues are discussed undermines the role of a vibrant democracy. The press is not above public opinion or above electorate. In the bid to show major electoral issues, the real issues get sidelined or neglected and the ones that come on centrestage are the ones considered necessary by political parties or considered important by a handful of gatekeepers. This study is inspired by claims that opinion polls must be banned altogether, even in between phases of voting. Media coverage of elections takes place depending upon the limited training of journalists along with politician-journalist liaison. The real decision-makers are the people but does that genuine public opinion get reflected in the electoral outcome or does it tend to get swayed by unequal, biased media coverage of elections. This forms the basic premise of the study. The research tries to analyse the various aspects of media coverage of election of 2014 in a rural constituency of Uttar Pradesh. There are a few operational definitions within this research: Election: An election is a formal decision-making process by which a population chooses an individual to hold public office. Opinion Poll: An opinion poll, sometimes simply referred to as a poll, is a survey of public opinion from a particular sample. Exit Poll: An election exit poll is a poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations. Media: Communication channels through which news, entertainment, education, data, or promotional messages are disseminated. Media includes every broadcasting and narrowcasting medium such as newspapers, magazines, TV, radio, billboards, direct mail, 4 telephone, fax, and internet. Media is the plural of medium and can take a plural or singular verb, depending on the sense intended. Bias: An inclination or preference that influences judgment from being balanced or evenhanded.
Objectives of study
Specific objectives of the study are to understand what is the extent of media coverage and does media exposure affect voter turnout. Main objective is to find out the following details:
· The effect of election coverage on voting behaviour of electorate
· Influence of election news coverage on voting behaviour Some research questions to be answered are:
· RQ1: To what extent voters are exposed to different media (radio, television, internet and social media)?
· RQ2: Did media exposure affect voter turnout?
· RQ3: Which other factors affected voter turnout?
· RQ4: How many women as compared to men voters were influenced by media?
· RQ5: How many illiterate as compared to educated and literate men and women were influenced by media?
· RQ6: Which type of coverage in the media (horse race, candidate, and issue) prompted them to vote?
· RQ7: Which aspect of media coverage (agenda-setting, priming, framing, game frame) existed in this election coverage in 2014?
· RQ8: What was the role of the Election Commission?
· RQ9: How can the conduct and coverage of election be improved in future?
Statement of problem
The primary research question of the current study is to understand whether or not the election coverage influences voting behaviour in India. Most studies in this area either look at media and elections from a personal view point of the media or discuss the same from a negative perspective. It is argued that the media has both positive and negative attributes which help contribute to electoral voting pattern and it is important to look at both these aspects. 5 Media are free to conduct opinion polls during elections. The mass media in India and its growth reflects the diversity and plurality of the country during the period of elections. However, there have been some arguments that the media by adopting opinion polls can sometimes distort fair dissemination of information by looking into motives of profit and private support specific parties. It is argued that a number of civil society organisations around the country were worried that given the 2004 Election Commission role on using media for political promotion there has been extensive misuse of the print and electronic media by various political parties and candidates around the world. An examination of the above study factors indicate that election related studies have concentrated on positives of elections with almost negligible importance given to the negatives of the same. There is evidence to suggest the need to distinguish between news, views and political campaigning.
Limitations of study
The study is conducted in a single Lok Sabha constituency which is difficult to represent the entire state of Uttar Pradesh. Uttar Pradesh is a multi-ethnic, multi-lingual and multi-cultural state. So a study in one part of the state cannot be replicated in another part. This research will use the results after the general election of 2014. Similarly, voting during General elections 2014 wherein the primary data is to be collected from the electorate by using a questionnaire to find out how certain different voters and members from the electorate viewed these elections. Sample size is 500 respondents. The study questionnaire and focus groups will be conducted in specific regions of the constituency including Kanpur rural area.
Research Design
Hypotheses
After much study of the literature, the hypothesis for this study -the null and alternate hypotheses are:
Ho= Media coverage of election does not influence voting behavior
Ha=Media coverage of election influences voting behavior
In this case the independent variable is ‘media coverage of election’ and the dependent variable is ‘voting behaviour’. The researcher seeks to find answers to the research questions with the help of a definite research methodology and specific tools and techniques.
Research methodology
For the purpose of the study, a mixed research methodology is undertaken. Survey method is adopted for a quantitative study and focus group discussions are taken up for a qualitative study. Survey methodology studies the sampling of individual units from a population and the associated survey data collection techniques, such as questionnaire construction and methods for improving the number and accuracy of responses to surveys. This method is best suited for this study as there was a need to collect details about the different sections of the population and analyze their responses to certain questions related to media habits and voter behavior. Interview schedules were administered as well. Focus group is a form of qualitative research in which a group of people are asked about their perceptions, opinions, beliefs, and attitudes towards a product, service, concept, advertisement, idea, or packaging. Questions are asked in an interactive group setting where participants are free to talk with other group members. Such a triangulation method facilitates research and dissolves any margin of error in getting the results. Triangulation is a method where two or more methods are used to check the results. Primary data collection through focus group discussions Twelve focus groups were conducted with the rural representatives of each of these groups-
· Grassroots workers of Uttar Pradesh Congress Committee
· Grassroots workers of Samajwadi Party
· Grassroots workers of Communist Party of India (Marxist)(CPI-M)
· Grassroots workers of Aam Admi Party
· Members of Islamic Peace Foundation
· Members of Sri Guru Singh Sabha
· Members of Sangha Vichar Parishad
· Members of ‘Parivartan’, a Non-Governmental Organisation (N.G.O.)
· Members of Hunter Sena and Mahila Social Action Committee
· Group of illiterate adult voters
· Group of educated youth
· Group of young professional educated women
Primary data collection through survey questionnaires 7 Within various Vidhan Sabha constituencies, details of villages, wards and Qanoongo circles visited by the researcher for the purpose of data collection are as follows. The following Cidhan Sabha constituencies within one Lok Sabha constituency – Akbarpur was taken for study:
1. Akbarpur-Rania 2. Bithoor 3. Ghatampur 4. Kalyanpur 5. Maharajpur
Sample
Population and sample The survey is conducted in Akbarpur Lok Sabha constituency where the total number of electors are 17, 66, 778. In each of the five Vidhan Sabha constituencies respondents are picked based on simple random sampling. It is an unbiased representation of a group. This involves taking a sample of 500 respondents from a population of size of 17, 66, 778 electors. The reason for choosing simple random sample is the simplicity of procedure in conducting the survey. The survey questionnaire has been conducted to avoid the pitfalls in other forms of sampling in a region where it is usually difficult to reach by a good transport. The questionnaires were distributed to 100 people from each sub-group of the main constituency.
Findings, analysis and discussion
Media exposure of voters
Few responses suggest that despite good media exposure media did not influence their voting behaviour. Results show that media is used by the electorate to increase their knowledge and awareness but their voting behaviour doesn’t get influenced. Candidate knowledge is important to be able to vote. Sometimes media misleads so it negatively influences the voter who sometimes is more like the consumer. Learning effect is at play- media helps make ‘an informed choice’. General election 2014 saw the widespread use of mediatised strategies by the parties and that helped changed the voters’ minds. The knowledge about voters and parties increases. It creates an awareness. Campaign strategies work more powerfully than mainstream media coverage. Election and voting is a weapon of an enlightened social citizen. 8 Media campaign strategies Some respondents were influenced by neighbours, family and friends. Media coverage is good and bad. People power is paramount and media should not be used to promote and propagate personal agendas as it is done by some today. If media is not used properly people reject the candidate. Media facilitates the campaigning being done by various parties. It is a platform to present the knowledge to the public. There are unwarranted and extended discussion of leadership, issues and debates which need not be covered. Issues need more focus. Some even had a cynical view towards elections. Due to excessive use of social media by parties some people did not vote. Social media is good for the party that uses it but a lot of people make friends blindly which is a bad use of the media. Social media use is susceptible to web crimes.
Women versus men voters
Yes there were more women in these elections. But there is a bias among a few men towards women candidates. Illiterate voters feel that women are competent but people think twice before voting for her wondering whether women will be able to manage home and work together after getting the responsibility of an MP. This answers another research question: RQ4: How many women as compared to men voters and candidates were influenced by media? Women are steering ahead in every field. It is little wonder that they perform as women are the frontrunners in any political rally or march. Women are equally hard-working and nothing can stop them as even in lathicharges they are way ahead than men. They are fearless and dynamic. Feudal mindset exists towards women who were not allowed to vote in her family. However women MPs like Smriti Irani are changing the rules and have created a precedent that women can equally well contest elections and do a good job in politics. She used her ‘bahu image’ to contest the elections. Media can play an important role in more participation from women. People wanted to be a part of the social change that’s going on. Voting is after all more of a social exercise than a political one.
Illiterate versus literate voters
Illiterate voters had more mature responses than literate ones. This answers another research question:
RQ5: How many illiterate as compared to educated and literate men and women were influenced by media? 9 Accountability of the candidate towards them made them vote. Media coverage of election influenced their voter turnout. More media coverage of election meant more voting. Media exposure definitely had a direct relationship with voter turnout. Greater media coverage, greater was the voter turnout among them.
Media campaign strategies
taken up by various parties helped and personalization helps more than just campaigning with the help of mainstream media. Greater campaigning by Modi meant more competition for other parties. This leads to horse race coverage.
Type of coverage in the media
Respondents point to the fact that the election coverage was more of a horse-race coverage where the coverage was more on polls , leadership and candidate image instead of other more serious concerns. They say that often journalists’ point of view is subjective and the electorate is forced to think about the type of coverage that suits the journalists and the journalists want the electorate to believe their subjective viewpoint on elections. There is not enough support provided to the voters to make their own objective viewpoint because those issues are not brought up and the journalists’ version of ‘reality of elections’ is forced upon the viewer and the electorate. Some voters tend to become cynics and due to hearing about the elections which is not a true picture are dissuaded from voting
Framing of election news in media
The framing of election news in Indian media has focussed more on agenda-setting and gameframes. Some respondents said that elections were contested on television and in the radio as though it were a competition, contest and game. This left several voters disillusioned and did not want to cast a vote as they felt that elections were not a serious issue but a ‘fun’ exercise. It diverted the voters towards concentrating on their daily chores rather than being a part of this political and social exercise. In the election coverage of 2014, media played up certain issues and items more than others and seemed to decide on an agenda for the public and for the politicians.
Impact of elections on voters
This election was similar to what Temin and Smith found in their study of the 2000 Ghanaian elections- that the media played a pivotal role in the election coverage, but the impact of the media at the grassroots level is minimal. Media outlets are consumed very differently across different parts of the constituency. The media have a significant effect on a particular class of Indian- the urban elites the class that matters. In this case, however, the impact of such coverage has reached the urban voters and rural voters are still left out of this sort of media 10 blitzkrieg. There is no single lingua franca, there is low literacy rate, communications network are not too widespread and there are legal protections on free speech and expression.
Suggestions for improvement of the conduct of elections
Presidential debate culture of the US must be followed here unlike only mindless discussions on television. Debates on each and every topic should be done instead of personalized attacks on candidates as happen these days. It is thus important to note that the findings have tilted towards media coverage not influencing voter behaviour at large due to little media penetration and little media exposure of the electorate.
Quantitative data analysis
Quantitative data findings answer some and most of our research questions and indicate that media coverage of elections does not influence voter behaviour.
Demographic profile
The demographic profile of candidates is such that majority of the respondents are from the age group of 18 to 29 years followed by those in the age bracket 30 to 49 years and least respondents who were fifty years or above. Moreover most of the candidates were males, with hundred respondents each from AkbarpurRaniya, Bithoor, Ghatampur, Kalyanpur and Maharajpur Vidhan Sabha constituencies. In different constituencies different occupations remained predominant among respondentsfarmers were a majority in Akbarpur-Raniya, unemployed and housewives remained a majority in Bithoor, in Ghatampur students were a majority while in Kalyanpur those in private businesses remained in a majority and in Maharajpur again unemployed and housewives remained a majority. Most of the residents were from rural or village areas and lesser from the cities. As far as the marital status of respondents is concerned there were more single men and women from Akbarpur-Raniya and Kalyanpur while from Bithoor, Ghatampur and Maharajpur there were more married respondents. In all the constituencies most respondents were educated upto college and above. Hence most of them were graduates. Majority of the respondents spoke in Hindi while the rest spoke other local dialects. Majority of the respondents belonged to the upper caste especially Brahmins followed by Other 11 Backward Classes. The rest of the respondents were Muslims, Koeris, Kurmis, Yadavs, Jats, Scheduled Castes and Jatavs. As far as the use of social media is concerned, majority of the respondents used social media for one to three hours daily where Facebook was the main social networking site used. Voters, this explains, are exposed to the media to a large extent. This answers the first research question in detail spelling out how much of media is used by various respondents.
General awareness about Lok Sabha election 2014
Through the survey questionnaire it is learnt that majority of the people had little information about election through the media. Most of the knowledge about elections was received from television followed by internet and then friends, family, relatives and village elders and then the radio. Majority of the respondents had voted. Most of the respondents were motivated to vote by the urge to serve the country and build its future. The various factors that motivated one to vote are that it is one’s right, everybody else was voting, for peace and security, so that their candidate wins and comes to power, for sops and gifts from political parties after they win, the candidate was from their community, strengthening democracy, for the development of the area, and in order to end the problems of water, electricity and road construction.
Assessment of the Lok Sabha election
The survey found out about how these Lok Sabha elections were gauged by the electorate through the coverage in the media. Questions were asked regarding the conduct of elections and whether they were legal, free and fair election and completely lawful. Responses were varied and interesting – majority of the respondents said that elections were transparent on being asked about transparency of elections in various booths. There were several reasons as to why people who voted or even those who did not vote thought elections were transparent- they said there was no fraud, then there were not more than one voter i-card holders, all voters were genuine, the media of the country was present at those booths, nobody had a complaint, everybody took part freely in these elections, elections were conducted lawfully, security was very strong and one person even said that he thought elections were transparent because his candidate won so they were fair.
Role of the Election Commission
One of the research questions was : 12 RQ8: What was the role of the Election Commission? The survey conducted also gauged people’s responses to a pertinent question related to the role of the Election Commission during the election coverage. Respondents had differing views and opinions. Majority of the respondents said that they thought the role of the Election Commission was satisfactory while some respondents said the role was very satisfactory and a few said the role was unsatisfactory. Those who thought the role of the Election Commission during elections was very satisfactory thought it was due to security being good, there was no fraud and fake votes were eliminated, there was no problem during voting, all polling booths were there at the venue, all the voters got an opportunity to vote, all the complaints were being heard and solutions were found and other reasons. There were reasons as to why the respondents felt the role of the Election Commission was only satisfactory and those reasons were- the security was good enough, there was less fraud and fake votes were eliminated, there was no problem during the elections, all polling booths were present, all voters got a chance to vote, all complaints were being heard and solutions were taken out, certain votes were wasted, people’s electricity problems did not end and other reasons.
Media effects of Lok Sabha election 2014
Majority of the respondents said they voted for the candidate who is currently in power. There are several reasons and factors that motivated one to vote and those factors were- television coverage and talks with politicians on television, after reading about it in the newspapers, hearing about elections on the radio, reading about elections in the social media and on Facebook, listening to the talks on elections, experiencing the election campaigning, reading the candidate coverage, some people were motivated to vote due to billboards and pamphlets and election leaflets, others by listening to neighbours and opinion leaders around, few others by talking to relatives, and others in their colony. Respondents were asked about how they found the political parties were represented- was representation of parties, very satisfactory, satisfactory or unsatisfactory and a majority of them said that the representation was satisfactory, few found it very satisfactory and others unsatisfactory. There were several reasons why they thought the representation was very satisfactory- all parties got fair representation and media gave free and fair and impartial coverage of the elections. Some who found the role satisfactory said – media was covered like a sport, was free and fair in its coverage, few parties and candidates got preference over others 13 and media was not very serious about the coverage of election. Few respondents found the representation of parties rather unsatisfactory and the main reasons for that were- media covered the elections non-seriously, media deliberately discussed certain issues over others for TRPs, media gave preferential coverage to few candidates or parties over others. In other words, there was horse-race coverage in the media and candidates and parties were not treated at par and equally by journalists. Respondents were asked the question as to what should be the role of the media ideally during election coverage. The answers were varied- media should be more unbiased and all parties should get due coverage, reporters should be allowed inside the polling booths for better and more impartial coverage, reporters should be present there to prevent fraud and bribery, etc., opinion polls should be banned, politicians should not all be allowed to feature very frequently in the media, political advertisements should be stopped in the media, there should be more coverage given to issues and manifestos, the methods of campaigning during elections should be made more transparent and visible in the media, presiding officers, etc. Should not be allowed to be in touch with the media in case they misuse it, all campaigning should be stopped one week before campaigning across the country as elections are held in phases, during voting there must be a check on the campaigning that went on in the pre-voting phase. After much analysis, it was found that media does not always give a positive coverage of elections in the media. Contemporary research emphasizes various cognitive and affective processes through which news media indirectly influence citizens’ political participation and preferences. These processes are central in four types of media effects that have recently received considerable attention in the election context: agenda-setting, priming, framing, knowledge gain. Della Vigna & Kaplan talked about the Fox News effect which again applies to Indian elections where media bias tends to alter voting behaviour among voters. Moreover voting behaviour theories are not completely scientific nor do they have definite stages of progression. There are failed attempts to target problems of political behaviour implicit in the voting process, there is little research planning leading to integrated theory construction, most political scientists do not cooperate with other researchers in fields of social science in order to research into political behaviour, the research is often characterized by poor techniques or the rule of thumb improperly applied and that voting behaviour researchers have sometimes a peculiar conception of the meaning of verification. However here it served as a good standard to understand the voters’ opinions and leanings based on the survey. 14 It is also noticed that spiral of silence theory is at play here. The spiral of silence theory stipulates that individuals have a fear of isolation, which results from the idea that a social group or the society in general might isolate, neglect or exclude members due to the members’ opinions. This fear of isolation consequently leads to remaining silent instead of voicing opinions. Media is an important factor that relates to both the dominant idea and people’s perception of the dominant idea. The assessment of one’s social environment may not always correlate with reality. At a time when Narendra Modi’s election campaigns were being organized across the country in various states by the Bharatiya Janata Party there seemed to be a wave completely in his favour with very few opinions and voices to the contrary.
Conclusion
Media does not have a large impact on voter behavior or turnout at least in the rural areas of Kanpur. One of the reasons for this study was to find out the media habits of people which directed us towards the extent of media exposure in India. Findings have indicated that people are exposed to radio, television and the internet but in a limited way. While substantial number of people agreed to the use of radio, only few watched television and a handful few were interested in reading the newspapers. As people watched television during elections, some of them did not watch news at all, rather continued to watch soaps and serials. This reduced their media exposure to the election news being telecast on television. In rural areas such media exposure was less. People listened to the radio more than any other media use. There was an interesting finding in this research that more than the mainstream media coverage which is quite expensive for a political party, media campaigns had a stronger influence on the voting behaviour. Media coverage as we have learnt refers to the mainstream media coverage of elections- ways used by parties to promote their agendas and reach out to the public. During the elections parties and candidates use various means to reach out to the voters and in that sense ‘note-forvote’ has been highly criticised. Media logic refers to the way of seeing and interpreting social affairs, in this case the elections. Along with it, ‘political economy’ of media puts enough pressure on the media organizations that they often align their agendas with those of the parties in election fray. Future research on a similar topic could look into other aspects of elections- campaigns, candidate coverage, usage of social media by various political leaders. 15 This study shows how electoral practices can be improved through the study on the scope for improved role of the Election Commission. The study has implications for NGOs working for electoral reforms and those who work towards better democratic practices. The study also is useful for media organizations to understand how media coverage can be improved. The study works on political parties on how can campaigning and their practices be made effective for electorate. It is useful for psephologists, political activists and academicians who can read and learn from this and form their opinions about how elections can be studied in a rural area with a diverse population and with limited media reach and exposure.
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